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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT) 		Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
4 DEC-5 DEC ACTIVE STORM G2
5 DEC-6 DEC QUIET STORM G1
6 DEC-7 DEC QUIET ACTIVE

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 72 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UTC) Average Max At time (UTC)
1 DEC-2 DEC ACTIVE STORM G2 12:00-15:00 ACTIVE STORM G1 12:00-15:00
STORM G1 12:00-15:00
2 DEC-3 DEC QUIET QUIET 00:00-06:00 QUIET QUIET 03:00-06:00
3 DEC-4 DEC QUIET ACTIVE 15:00-18:00 QUIET QUIET 15:00-18:00

Additional Comments

Solar wind speed is currently elevated due to the arrival of a high speed stream from a large, recurrent, transequatorial coronal hole. Influence from this coronal hole is likely to persist over the next few days and may increase further during day one which could enhance geomagnetic activity. A CME observed on the 1st may have an Earth-directed component which could give a glancing blow towards the end of the first forecast interval.
ACTIVE periods are expected over the next couple of days, with some periods of STORM G1 possible. There is a chance it could peak briefly at STORM G2 should the CME arrive and combine with ongoing coronal hole effects.
The solar wind should be declining by day three and we should see a return to more QUIET conditions, with just a chance of an occasional ACTIVE period.
Time of forecast: 04 Dec 2023
© UKRI