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BGS Global Geomagnetic Activity Forecast

Forecast period
(noon-to-noon GMT)
Forecast Global Activity level
Average Max
20 AUG-21 AUG QUIET STORM G1
21 AUG-22 AUG QUIET STORM G1
22 AUG-23 AUG QUIET ACTIVE

For more information about the forecast and activity categories see
www.geomag.bgs.ac.uk/education/activitylevels.html

Activity during last 72 hours

Global   Local (UK)
Date Average Max At time (UT) Average Max At time (UT)
17 AUG-18 AUG QUIET ACTIVE 21:00-00:00 QUIET ACTIVE 18:00-00:00
18 AUG-19 AUG QUIET QUIET 00:00-03:00 QUIET QUIET 00:00-03:00
19 AUG-20 AUG QUIET ACTIVE 00:00-06:00 QUIET ACTIVE 03:00-06:00

Additional Comments

The solar wind speed and the strength of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) have both increased over the last 24 hours. This is likely to indicate the arrival of a high speed solar wind stream from a coronal hole in the southern hemisphere. Further ACTIVE periods are possible with a slight chance of isolated STORM G1 periods whilst the solar wind remains disturbed.
This is a large coronal hole which could continue to affect the solar wind for several days; however, the latter portion is further south, away from the equator and so the impact is expected to lessen after the first forecast interval.
A weak coronal mass ejection observed on 19 AUG appears to be mostly headed southwards although there is a slight chance of a glancing blow during the 2nd forecast interval. This combined with an already disturbed solar wind due to coronal hole effects could lead to some STORM G1 periods.
Time of forecast: 20 Aug 2018
© UKRI 2018