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Predicting Space Weather at BGS

Forecast Service

BGS makes a daily three-day ahead forecast of geomagnetic activity, both in terms of global activity and of activity in the UK. The three-day forecast is based on an assessment of current conditions on the Sun and in interplanetary space and of various forecast data (our own data as well as public domain data).

Daily Activity Predictions

BGS make daily predictions of local and global geomagnetic activity and solar activity. These are used for example by the European Space Operations Centre, in Germany.

Below is our 1-27 days ahead prediction for F10.7 Solar Radio Flux. Click for a larger image.

A Chart showing the last 180 days and a 27 day ahead predction for Solar Radio Flux F10.7

Our 1-27 day ahead forecast of the DRX index (the daily range in the hourly North component) for Lerwick Observatory and the global geomagnetic index Ap. Click for a larger image.

A Chart showing the last 180 days and a 27 day ahead predction for DRX and Ap index

Neural Network Predictions

BGS produces every day a three-day-ahead forecast of global Ap using non-linear neural network techniques. These forecasts are incorporated into our 1-27 forecast (see above). Click on the image below to see how the neural net forecast compares with a simpler linear model of activity. Note that the activity 'classifier' is currently disabled.

Neural Network Predictions

Long-term Predictions

BGS also make long-term (solar cycle) predictions of monthly average solar and geomagnetic activity.

Below is the current long-term forecast of Solar Sunspot number (SSN), Solar Radio Flux F10.7 and Geomagnetic Activity - the Ap index. Click for a larger image.

A long-term forecast of solar and geomanetic activity including F10.7, SSN, aa-index